Global and China Cotton Market Review and Prospect

China is the world’s largest cotton producing country, consumer country, and importing country. These three tops have been maintained for many years, but future developments may make some changes in these three areas.

It is now the world's largest producer, accounting for about 30% of global production, but it is very likely to be replaced by India in the next few years. At present, the cotton acreage in India is the largest in the world and the yield is relatively high. In the future, with the improvement of management technology and yield, India will become the world's largest cotton producer.

China is a big country in the textile industry and the largest consumer of cotton in the world. Its demand accounts for about 40% of the world's total. Although India’s cotton demand ranks second in the world, the proportion is very small and far less than China’s demand. Therefore, the status of China’s largest textile country and cotton’s largest consumer country will not change.

China's cotton production is relatively stable, and the area of ​​cultivated land is mainly grain-growing areas, because the cultivated area will not be significantly increased, so the output will not increase substantially. The textile industry decided that the status of China’s largest cotton consumer country will not change. Therefore, the status of the largest importer of cotton in China will continue to be maintained in the coming years.

This will make China more affected by the global cotton supply and demand situation and other global cotton production policies.

Since China's accession to the WTO, global textile quotas have been liberalized, China's textile industry has developed rapidly, and the textile industry's demand and cotton imports have increased significantly. Therefore, the 2005 and 2006 cotton imports once reached 4.14 million tons per year of cotton (cotton year: annual September - August of the following year). Later, with the emergence of some cotton substitutes, the demand for imports was relatively stable, basically maintaining a level of around 2 million to 3 million tons. From the trend, the proportion of yarn products produced by the global cotton industry is gradually narrowing.

China’s major cotton importers are the United States, India, and Uzbekistan. Imports from other countries are relatively stable. Therefore, we must pay special attention to the cotton production area, yield, and output of the United States and India. These indicators will all be applied to cotton in China. Availability affects.

Global and China Cotton Market Review in 10/11 In 10/11, cotton prices have skyrocketed and plummeted, presenting a roller coaster market. The cotton price index is an index that reflects the spot price of domestic cotton. From the year of 1999 to the present, except for the previous year, the price of cotton has basically fluctuate around several years with a price of around 1.3 million yuan. When it was high, it was 17,000 yuan. When it was low, it was low. It is 7000-8000 yuan. However, 10 years of cotton prices broke the historical record. From the end of 2009 to the beginning of the 10th year, there was a substantial increase. The cotton price has risen from 16,000 to 30,000, which has more than doubled. At the same time, It rose to about 34,000 yuan. This rise was a record high, but it started to fluctuate in November last year. It began to drop continuously in March and now it has reached about 19,000, and it is less than 20,000, although it has not returned to its original position. But it has already returned a lot.

From the perspective of the international cotton market, there has never been seen such a large fluctuation before. In the past, the average long-term cash price of international cotton was about 70 cents, and when it was 911 high, it was also more than 100 cents, but in the 10 years, there were also 70- 80 cents rose to more than 200 cents, spot prices also appeared the same increase, at present, the New York ** industry fell below 100 cents to 90 cents, the big drop is the global situation.

While raw materials cotton prices have risen sharply, the same situation has occurred with cotton yarn prices driven by raw material prices. According to the statistics of the Cotton Information Network, the September 32-year-old yarn of September 2007 was also experiencing a major ups and downs. Cotton and cotton yarns are on the same chain, and cotton yarns have also experienced from 26,000 to 42,000, with a twist in the middle and back to a position of about 2.7 million yuan. There is no link in the whole chain that has escaped the big ups and downs.

Why is there a historic rise? There are mainly the following reasons: 1) At the macro level, global liquidity is sufficient to increase inflation expectations; 2) Downstream consumption resumes, and European and American markets have strong demand; 3) Domestic and foreign cotton production declines, stocks are low, and the proportion of high grades decreases; 4) The national reserves are low, weakening the ability to regulate and control, and strengthening the expectations of rising; 5) speculative funds influx into the commodity market, cotton is favored.

The reasons for the slump in early March-August are: 1) Frequent introduction of measures such as raising interest rates and accruals, strong expectations of tightening; 2) RMB 19,800, the introduction of a storage and storage plan – exacerbated market decline expectations; 3) Sowing of new cotton in the northern hemisphere Globally expected supply exceeds demand; 4) Downstream consumption is not power, price transmission is not smooth, textile companies have a backlog of inventory, and downtime rate rises; 5) Capital chain tensions, zero pressure at the end of the year and repayment of loans have become an important pressure.

Some people think that the cotton gap is rigid at the beginning of the year, but cotton is actually replaceable. When the rigid gap rises to a certain extent, it becomes elastic, so the cotton price must return to rationality.

2.11/12 Global and China Cotton Market Outlook From the enhancement of the cotton financial attributes, the impact of the macroeconomic situation will be even closer. The reduction of the Italian credit rating a few days ago has also led to the daily price drop of cotton, so the stability of the global economy affects cotton. Price fluctuations. At present, because the global economy is overshadowed by the shadow, it has a certain impact on textile consumption. China is the world’s largest exporter of textiles and garments. If Western countries have an impact on downstream demand, they will directly affect the export of textile and apparel products in China, so pay attention to others. The country’s economic situation is also very necessary.

From the domestic perspective, the absolute amount of China’s economy is growing, but the increase has also been reduced. This is also difficult to judge for the fast growing domestic textile consumption. The textile industry faces several major pressures, such as labor shortages, financial shortages, and power shortages. The profits of most textile and garment companies, especially the value-added of Dalu, are not high, and corporate profits are relatively low. Among them, the most serious is the labor shortage. As the population growth rate declines, and the number of young people who are willing to work as weavers in the 1980s and 1990s is declining, compared with the relatively low labor costs in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. Therefore, the advantages of labor costs have gradually become more apparent in other countries. China's advantages are more reflected in productivity. The same labor force is cheaper in other countries, but our efficiency will be higher, but the labor cost advantage will gradually be lost. This is a big cost for textile companies. In addition, funding is scarce. The tightening policy in the near term will not be significantly improved. For textile companies, funding is a very important issue. The cost of several interest rate hikes is high, so many companies choose to borrow from private sources, increase the cost of the product, and in the long run Become a factor affecting prices. In the first half of the year, when prices fell sharply, the government continued to raise interest rates. Some companies still had to repay at the end of the year. Many companies had to reluctantly sell some products such as cotton and cotton yarns at low prices. Therefore, funds will become phased. An important factor affecting the price of cotton and cotton yarn. Secondly, in summer, many provinces will adopt power-restricting measures. Textile companies have to cut production and suspend production. Some companies buy generators and other equipment themselves, which increases costs, so electricity consumption is also a problem. For export-oriented companies, the exchange rate is a special issue to consider. *** has been in the appreciation zone, but the recent appreciation has accelerated, and now it has reached a position of around 6.37, many textile companies feel that may exceed 6.3 to reach the level of 6.2, which has a significant impact on the export of textile enterprises. Because there is expected appreciation, companies will have a lot of concerns in signing long and large orders. In addition, it is the downward adjustment of the export tax rebate rate. The big premise is to balance trade and not to use textile exports as the largest economic stimulus. Therefore, foreign trade must be balanced. At the same time, adjusting the structure of the textile industry is also one of the reasons for the reduction of export tax rebates. Therefore, it is not necessary to protect the industry blindly, but to make the industry have a healthy development and eliminate some weak enterprises. In the medium to long-term, export tax rebates will be reduced. Only competitive enterprises will survive better. However, in the near term, it is unlikely that the reduction will be due to the current situation of textile companies.

From the point of view of cotton itself, if the October cotton price does not have a significant natural disaster, the supply and demand of global cotton in 11/12 is relatively loose, and it can be said that supply exceeds demand. According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s view of the world, global cotton production increased by 7.3% over the previous year, totaling more than 26 million tons, and the consumption was only over 25 million tons. Production is greater than sales, so the supply of cotton resources is relatively abundant next year. In the global cotton-growing region, only Texas and other places in the United States are affected by severe drought, which is a reduction in production (acreage is increased). If the United States does not reduce production, the supply will be more abundant. India's cotton exceeded 6 million tons, which is also a breakthrough historical record. This year, India’s cotton was fully released for export due to bumper harvest (the previous year, India restricted exports, so some resources did not enter the market), there is no quota limit, so the proportion of imported Indian cotton this year is expected Will increase. Indian cotton prices will have an impact on global cotton and Chinese cotton prices, because Indian cotton is cheaper than other cotton.

Global consumption depends on the stability of the global economy and is currently cautiously optimistic. Domestic production is also increasing. The Cotton Information Network announced at the beginning of September that China’s cotton production is expected to increase by more than 15% this year, but the size of 7.4 million tons will take into account the recent continuous rainy days in the Yellow River basin, which may cause the opening of the bolls, which may occur in October. Slightly reduced to a scale of 7.2-7.3 million tons, but the overall trend will not change, and increase production than last year. In addition, this year's Xinjiang production is also very good, Xinjiang's output accounts for 30-40% of the country's share, so the good harvest and good quality of Xinjiang cotton will have a good guarantee for the country's resources. It is expected that Xinjiang's cotton will reach 3.5 million tons this year.

Looking at the demand situation, exports in the first half of the year have increased year-on-year and month-on-month, but they have fallen month-on-month since August, because there is a certain lag in raw materials and textiles, and the textile industry is still facing certain difficulties. The growth is not an export situation is good, or there are other reasons, the increase in exports mainly comes from the price, not the number of growth, so the overall situation is not as good as the data shows, and the price increase does not come from the demand side, so that From the rise of raw materials, passive rise, which led to the tightening of most corporate profits. From the perspective of product demand, cotton textiles are declining, and the substitution of chemical fiber products will be significantly increased. This shows that the textile companies have not yet fully recovered, and the situation of downtime and production cuts has not been completely reversed, because the downstream consumption has not changed significantly. The weakening of downstream demand led to a change in the previously expected rigid gap to an elastic gap, which led to an increase in stocks of cotton yarn and grey fabrics. In the first half of the year, it was basically in the process of destocking. In the second half of the year, cotton consumption will remain stable and there will be no significant growth. Therefore, the domestic demand for cotton is at most about 10 million tons.

Although consumption is stable, production is limited and there is still demand for imports. This requires attention to the price of cotton in the global exporting countries, that is, domestic and foreign cotton spreads. China's cotton has a high cost price, which is the highest in the world. However, last year was a bit unusual. International cotton has been higher than China's for some time, and now it is gradually returning and returning to the domestic and foreign price spreads. When prices are appropriate, China can supplement resources through imports and reduce cost. China's import of the cotton market is liberalized, but it is not completely free, and there are quotas, so the quota and distribution schedule will affect the pace of cotton imports. When the quota is insufficient or the staged needs cannot be met, the demand for cotton will also be affected.

3. The impact of this year’s cotton purchase and storage policy on the market At present, the market is more concerned with the policy of cotton collection and storage. In March this year, the new year’s storage and storage policy was announced. This is the first time in history that the policy of purchasing and storing was announced in advance. It was announced a few days in advance, but this is the first time in six months in order to increase propaganda and protect farmers. The details of purchasing and storage may not be of great concern, but the price of storage and storage is still very sensitive. What is the concept of closing storage price of 19,800 yuan? (The reserve price is set based on the ratio of grain to cotton 1:10) – the price of lint to warehouse (the price sent to the warehouse), not the cost price. Therefore, the company's cost price must be lower than the library price, and it will only be profitable if sent to the library. On the psychological level, this has a certain influence on the market price.

In previous years, the state had some restrictions on the amount of reserves, but this year the country is not limited, as long as the company feels profitable or bearish can be handed over. In fact, since the start of September 8 to date, no one ton has been traded, and no one is willing to sell. This is mainly due to the fact that Xinmian has not yet been listed on the market. Everyone has a certain degree of disagreement about the price. Some companies have already reached a cost price of 2%. Millions or so, there will be a loss when you pay. Of course, even though there is no transaction, the closing price of the deposit still has a supporting role for the market, and now the price of cotton does not continue to fall again.

However, there is also a valid period for collection and storage, from September 1 to March 31. Therefore, several factors are currently of major concern: 1) weather conditions in the next month (when the world is currently harvesting); 2) impact of the global economic situation on consumption; 3) large amount of new cotton coming onto the market in November and the final output Situation; 4) Quota conditions (the amount of sliding quotas for the next year at the end of December); 5) There are deadlines for the collection and storage policy. After the end of March 31, look at the recycling situation. If the recovery is not successful, the harvest resources will be available on the market. In the hands of cotton traders, the spot market is relatively large. If it is accepted, the state's control will increase. Therefore, as a whole, the possibility of a large increase in cotton this year is not very large. However, in March, it is necessary to pay attention to the next year's purchase and storage policies. The collection and storage price is based on the ratio of grain to cotton. From the perspective of major policy trends, it is still necessary to protect food and stabilize cotton. Therefore, it is expected to remain at a ratio of 1:10 in the future and will not be lower than RMB 19,800. Therefore, cotton Entering 20,000 times is a general trend.

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